Evidence-Based Conclusions

• ›Every analytical judgment must be traceable through the evidence chain: raw data, processed information, analyzed evidence, and judgment.
• ›Use the Admiralty (NATO) rating system or equivalent to evaluate source reliability and information credibility independently.
• ›Clearly separate facts (observable and verifiable) from judgments (analytical conclusions) using explicit signpost language.
• ›When evidence conflicts, acknowledge it openly, explain your weighting, and present alternative interpretations.
• ›The Iraq WMD failure demonstrates what happens when evidence standards slip: fabricated sources, confirmation bias, and analytical leaps can have catastrophic consequences.
• ›Document everything as if it will be audited -- because the best intelligence cultures assume it will be.

TL;DR: Evidence is like a parachute: if it is not there when you need it, you are in for a very bad day.